30 Jul

25-Year vs. 30-Year Mortgage: It’s About More Than Interest

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier

Choosing between a 25- and 30-year amortization is one of the biggest mortgage decisions you’ll make. Many people assume a 30-year amortization is a poor financial choice because you’ll pay more interest over time.

While that’s true on paper, it doesn’t tell the full story.

The best option depends on your cash flow, financial goals, and how you use the money you save each month.

Key Takeaways

  • A 30-year amortization lowers your monthly payment.
  • Total interest is only one part of the decision.
  • Lower payments can improve cash flow and financial flexibility.
  • The right choice depends on your personal financial strategy—not just the math.

Why Total Interest Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

Most mortgage comparisons focus on lifetime interest costs. While a 30-year amortization usually results in more total interest, those payments are spread over decades.

Because of inflation, a dollar paid 25 or 30 years from now isn’t worth the same as a dollar today. Financial planners call this the time value of money.

That’s why looking only at total interest can make a longer amortization appear more expensive than it really is.

The Biggest Benefit: Cash Flow

The main advantage of a 30-year amortization is lower required monthly payments.

That extra cash can be used to:

  • Build an emergency fund
  • Invest through a TFSA or RRSP
  • Pay off higher-interest debt
  • Cover growing family expenses
  • Reduce financial stress

For many homeowners, flexibility is just as valuable as paying off the mortgage faster.

Flexibility Matters

Choosing a 30-year amortization doesn’t mean you’re locked into paying it off over 30 years.

Most Canadian mortgages allow prepayments, so you can increase your payments or make lump-sum contributions whenever your budget allows.

Think of a 30-year amortization as creating a lower payment floor, while giving you the option to pay it down faster.

When Does a 30-Year Amortization Make Sense?

A longer amortization may be a smart option if you:

  • Want to improve monthly affordability
  • Have variable or commission-based income
  • Plan to invest the payment savings
  • Prefer keeping more cash available for unexpected expenses

On the other hand, if your goal is to become mortgage-free sooner and you comfortably afford the higher payment, a 25-year amortization may be the better fit.

The Bottom Line

A 30-year amortization isn’t inherently better—or worse—than a 25-year one.

It’s simply a financial tool.

For some borrowers, paying the mortgage down faster is the right move. For others, lower payments provide flexibility, better cash flow, and opportunities to grow wealth elsewhere.

The best mortgage strategy isn’t about paying the least interest—it’s about choosing the option that supports your overall financial goals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is a 30-year amortization a bad idea?

Not necessarily. It lowers monthly payments and provides more flexibility, but it generally results in higher total interest if you make only the minimum payments.

Can I pay off a 30-year mortgage faster?

Yes. Most Canadian mortgages include prepayment privileges that allow you to make extra payments and reduce your amortization.

Which amortization is best?

There isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer. Your income, cash flow, financial habits, and long-term goals should determine which option is right for you.


Cedric Pelletier
Mortgage Associate – Maximal Mortgages
780-220-7617

24 Jul

Why a 3-Year Fixed Mortgage Still Makes Sense

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier


Key Takeaways

  • Lower inflation doesn’t automatically make variable rates the better choice.
  • Today’s mortgage pricing still favours many fixed-rate options.
  • A 3-year fixed offers a strong balance of stability and flexibility.
  • The best mortgage depends on your financial situation—not rate forecasts.

Lower Inflation Doesn’t Change Everything

With inflation easing, many Canadians expect variable mortgages to become the obvious choice.

Not so fast.

Mortgage rates are priced based on what financial markets expect to happen—not just today’s inflation. Much of the anticipated movement in Bank of Canada rates is already reflected in current mortgage pricing.

Why the 3-Year Fixed Stands Out

For many borrowers, a 3-year fixed mortgage continues to hit the sweet spot by offering:

  • Predictable payments
  • Competitive rates
  • Flexibility to renew sooner if rates decline

The cost of locking in certainty is currently smaller than many people think.

Variable Mortgages Still Have a Role

A variable mortgage can still be a good fit if you:

  • Have a stable income
  • Can comfortably handle payment changes
  • Want maximum flexibility
  • Expect to sell or refinance before your term ends

Choosing a mortgage isn’t about predicting rates perfectly—it’s about choosing the option that best fits your financial goals.

The Bottom Line

Despite lower inflation, a 3-year fixed mortgage remains one of the strongest values in today’s market. It offers stability without giving up much in potential savings, making it a smart option for many Canadians renewing or buying a home.


FAQ

Does lower inflation mean variable mortgages are better?

Not necessarily. Current mortgage rates already reflect market expectations for future Bank of Canada decisions.

Why are 3-year fixed mortgages popular right now?

They provide payment certainty while allowing borrowers to renew sooner if rates move lower.

Who should consider a variable mortgage?

Borrowers with stable finances, lower debt, and a higher tolerance for changing interest rates.

Cedric Pelletier
Mortgage Associate – Maximal Mortgages

14 Jul

Bank of Canada Holds Rates: What It Means for Your Mortgage

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier


Bank of Canada Holds Rates: What It Means for Your Mortgage

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 2.25%, marking a sixth straight rate hold. While that decision may not surprise markets, the Bank’s outlook could provide important clues about where interest rates are headed next.

For homeowners and buyers, the focus is shifting from “Will rates be cut?” to “When could rates start rising again?”

Key Takeaways

  • The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.25%.
  • Inflation has risen above 3%, increasing pressure for future rate hikes.
  • Canada’s economy is showing signs of recovery after a slow start to 2026.
  • Some economists expect rate hikes later this year, while others don’t see increases until 2027.

Why Is the Bank Holding Rates?

The Bank continues to balance inflation with economic growth. While inflation remains above target, there is still enough slack in the economy to justify waiting before raising rates.

This gives policymakers time to determine whether higher inflation is temporary or becoming more widespread.

Inflation Is Back in Focus

Higher energy costs have pushed inflation above 3%, but the Bank will be watching for signs that rising prices are spreading into wages and everyday goods.

If inflation stays elevated, interest rate hikes become more likely.

What Are Canada’s Big Banks Predicting?

Economists agree a rate hold is likely this week, but opinions differ on what comes next.

  • Scotiabank: Expects rate hikes beginning in late 2026.
  • RBC, CIBC & National Bank: Forecast hikes in 2027.
  • BMO & TD: Expect rates to remain unchanged through 2027.

The timing will depend on future inflation and economic data.

What This Means for Mortgage Borrowers

A rate hold doesn’t guarantee lower mortgage rates ahead. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by market expectations, and lenders may adjust pricing if investors expect future Bank of Canada hikes.

If you’re buying a home or renewing your mortgage, it’s a good time to review your options and plan for different rate scenarios rather than waiting for rates to fall further.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates unchanged, but its messaging may be more important than the decision itself. With inflation remaining above target and economic growth improving, future rate hikes are becoming part of the conversation again.

For borrowers, staying informed and planning ahead is the best way to navigate an uncertain rate environment.


FAQ

Will the Bank of Canada raise rates this week?

Most economists expect the Bank to hold its policy rate at 2.25%.

Why are rate hikes being discussed?

Inflation has climbed above the Bank’s 2% target, raising concerns that higher interest rates may be needed if price pressures persist.

Should I lock in my mortgage?

That depends on your financial goals and risk tolerance. Speaking with a mortgage professional can help you decide whether a fixed or variable rate is the better fit.

2 Jul

Canada’s Economy Rebounds—Will Mortgage Rates Stay Higher?

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier


Canada’s economy grew 0.5% in April, beating expectations and marking its strongest monthly gain since last summer. While that’s positive news for the economy, it may also keep pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

Key Takeaways

  • Canada’s GDP rose 0.5% in April, above forecasts.
  • Growth was led by oil and gas, mining, and construction.
  • The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield climbed back above 3%.
  • Strong U.S. job openings also pushed bond yields higher.
  • Markets now see a roughly 50/50 chance of another Bank of Canada rate hike by year-end.

Why It Matters

Fixed mortgage rates are largely driven by Government of Canada bond yields. As stronger economic data pushes yields higher, lenders have less room to lower fixed mortgage rates.

While Canada’s economy is showing resilience, challenges remain, including trade uncertainty, tariffs, and slower population growth. Even so, stronger-than-expected GDP has reinforced expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer.

What Homebuyers Should Know

If you’re shopping for a mortgage or renewing this year, don’t expect fixed rates to fall quickly unless bond yields move lower. Economic data over the coming months—especially inflation and employment—will continue to shape where rates go next.

FAQ

Why did bond yields rise?
Stronger Canadian GDP and better-than-expected U.S. job openings increased expectations that interest rates could remain elevated.

Does this mean mortgage rates will rise?
Not necessarily, but higher bond yields typically reduce the likelihood of lower fixed mortgage rates in the near term.


Cedric Pelletier – Mortgage Associate
Maximal Mortgages

25 Jun

Canada Inflation Rises, But the Full Story Matters

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier


Key Takeaways

  • Headline inflation increased to 3.2%, mainly due to higher energy prices.
  • Core inflation remains close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
  • Most economists believe this spike is temporary.
  • Mortgage rates could still face upward pressure from rising U.S. bond yields.

Why This Matters

Canada’s inflation climbed to 3.2% in May, but the increase was largely driven by a temporary jump in gas prices. The Bank of Canada pays closer attention to core inflation, which remained near 2%, suggesting underlying inflation is still under control.

While this supports keeping the overnight rate unchanged, fixed mortgage rates depend on bond yields—and those continue to rise despite softer inflation data.

What Could Push Rates Higher?

Markets are looking beyond inflation. Rising U.S. government bond yields, ongoing fiscal concerns, trade uncertainty, and continued AI-driven investment are all putting upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

What Borrowers Should Consider

If you’re buying a home or renewing your mortgage, don’t assume lower inflation automatically means lower mortgage rates. Fixed rates could remain elevated even if the Bank of Canada stays on hold.

For borrowers seeking certainty, a 3-year fixed or hybrid mortgage may provide a balanced approach while economic uncertainty continues.

FAQs

Will the Bank of Canada cut rates soon?
Most economists expect the Bank to keep rates steady unless core inflation rises meaningfully.

Why are fixed mortgage rates still high?
Fixed rates are driven by bond yields, which are being influenced by global economic factors—not just Canadian inflation.


Cedric Pelletier – Mortgage Associate
Maximal Mortgages

23 Jun

Canadian Inflation Climbs to 3.2% in May

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier

Key Takeaway: Inflation rose to 3.2% in May, its highest level since late 2023, largely driven by higher gasoline and food prices. However, underlying inflation remains relatively stable, reducing pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates.

What Drove Inflation Higher?

  • Gasoline prices surged 33.2% year-over-year due to Middle East supply concerns.
  • Grocery costs continued to rise, with fresh vegetables up 9.0% and fresh fruit up 5.3%.
  • Air travel costs increased 7.4% as airlines faced higher fuel expenses.

Some Good News

  • Core inflation measures remained near 2.1%, suggesting broader price pressures are still contained.
  • Shelter costs continued to cool, with rent growth easing to 3.5% and mortgage interest costs declining slightly.
  • Recent drops in oil and gasoline prices could help slow inflation in the coming months.

What This Means for Canadians

While higher fuel and food costs are squeezing household budgets, inflation is not spreading broadly across the economy. Current trends support expectations that the Bank of Canada will likely keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026 unless inflation becomes more widespread.

Bottom Line: May’s inflation spike appears to be driven mainly by temporary energy and food costs rather than a broad resurgence in inflation. For homeowners, buyers, and borrowers, this supports a continued “wait-and-see” approach from the Bank of Canada on interest rates.


Cedric Pelletier – Mortgage Associate
Maximal Mortgages

22 Jun

Canada’s Housing Market Gains Momentum for Summer 2026

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier


Key Takeaways

  • Home sales posted their strongest monthly gain of 2026 in May.
  • Home prices are stabilizing after months of declines.
  • Inventory remains balanced at 4.8 months nationally.
  • Lower borrowing costs are helping bring buyers back to the market.
  • Single-family homes are outperforming the condo sector.
  • The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold for now.

Why This Matters

After more than a year of uncertainty, Canada’s housing market appears to be shifting from stabilization into recovery. Lower mortgage rates, improved affordability, and more realistic pricing are encouraging buyers to re-enter the market.

For homebuyers, this could be a window of opportunity before competition increases further. For sellers, market conditions are becoming healthier and more balanced.

Sales Activity Continues to Improve

May delivered the strongest increase in home sales so far this year, signaling renewed confidence among buyers.

Several trends suggest momentum is building:

  • Stronger sale-to-list price ratios
  • Faster selling times
  • Slowing price declines
  • Improved affordability in many markets

Ontario and British Columbia, where prices have corrected the most, are seeing growing interest from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

Inventory Remains Balanced

New listings fell 1% in May and were down nearly 8% from a year ago.

National inventory sits at just over 200,000 properties, slightly below long-term averages. Months of inventory declined to 4.8 months, close to the historical balanced-market level of five months.

This suggests neither buyers nor sellers currently hold a significant advantage nationally.

Home Prices Are Finding a Floor

The national MLS® Home Price Index slipped just 0.1% in May, the smallest monthly decline since late 2025.

Year-over-year prices remain down 4.2%, but the pace of decline continues to slow.

This stabilization is important because it helps restore confidence and encourages more market activity.

Condos Still Face Challenges

While detached homes continue to see solid demand, many condo markets remain under pressure.

Factors affecting condo demand include:

  • Higher ownership costs
  • Softer rental markets
  • Reduced investor activity
  • Slower population growth due to lower immigration targets

However, improving financing conditions should gradually support condo demand over time.

What Could Happen Next?

Housing conditions appear more favourable heading into summer.

Falling oil prices and easing bond yields may reduce inflation concerns and support lower borrowing costs. If inflation remains contained, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026.

The biggest risk remains inflation. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could delay future rate cuts and temporarily slow housing activity.

Conclusion

Canada’s housing market is showing clear signs of improvement. Sales are rising, prices are stabilizing, and inventory remains balanced. While some regional and condo-market challenges persist, the overall trend suggests the market is regaining its footing.

For buyers, improving affordability and stable prices may create opportunities before activity accelerates further. For sellers, growing confidence and stronger demand could lead to better market conditions through the second half of 2026.

FAQ

Is Canada’s housing market recovering in 2026?

Yes. Rising sales, stabilizing prices, and balanced inventory levels suggest the market is moving from stabilization toward recovery.

Are home prices still falling?

Prices remain slightly below last year’s levels, but monthly declines have slowed significantly, indicating prices may be finding a floor.

Will mortgage rates fall in 2026?

While no outcome is guaranteed, markets currently expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold, with future rate decisions depending largely on inflation data.

Is now a good time to buy a home in Canada?

Many buyers are benefiting from improved affordability, lower prices compared to peak levels, and less competition than during previous market cycles.


Cedric Pelletier – Mortgage Associate
Maximal Mortgages

12 Jun

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25%: What It Means for Canadian Borrowers

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier

Theme: Uncertainty is shaping Canada’s economy—and understanding interest rate risks can help Canadians make smarter mortgage decisions.

Key Takeaways

  • The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%.
  • Inflation remains above the Bank’s 2% target and could rise further if energy prices stay elevated.
  • Economic growth has weakened, creating a difficult balancing act for policymakers.
  • Future rate decisions could go in either direction depending on trade tensions, inflation, and global events.
  • Mortgage borrowers should prepare for a range of scenarios rather than assuming rates will only move lower.

Why the Bank of Canada Left Rates Unchanged

The Bank of Canada has chosen to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, marking its fifth consecutive rate hold.

While many Canadians have been hoping for additional rate cuts, the central bank is facing a complicated economic environment.

On one hand, Canada’s economy has slowed considerably. Recent GDP figures showed the economy contracted during the first quarter, following weakness in the previous quarter as well.

On the other hand, inflation remains stubbornly above target. Rising energy costs, partly linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are creating upward pressure on prices.

This combination of slower growth and persistent inflation puts the Bank of Canada in a difficult position.

The Policy Dilemma Explained

Normally, central banks use interest rates to achieve one primary goal:

  • Lower rates help stimulate economic growth.
  • Higher rates help reduce inflation.

Today’s challenge is that Canada is experiencing signs of both economic weakness and inflationary pressure simultaneously.

If the Bank cuts rates too quickly:

  • Consumer spending could increase.
  • Inflation could remain elevated.
  • Price growth could become more difficult to control.

If the Bank raises rates:

  • Inflation may cool.
  • Economic growth could slow further.
  • Borrowers could face higher debt costs.

This is the “policy dilemma” Governor Tiff Macklem referenced.


How Global Events Are Affecting Canada’s Interest Rate Outlook

Two major global risks are influencing the Bank’s thinking.

1. U.S. Trade Uncertainty

Canada’s economy remains heavily dependent on trade with the United States.

If new trade restrictions are introduced, Canadian exports could weaken further, putting pressure on economic growth.

In that scenario, the Bank of Canada could consider lowering rates to support the economy.

2. Rising Oil Prices and Middle East Conflict

Higher oil prices tend to push transportation, manufacturing, and consumer costs higher.

The Bank noted that oil prices have remained above earlier forecasts due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

If higher energy costs spread into broader inflation across the economy, policymakers may need to consider additional rate hikes.

This is why the Bank specifically warned that consecutive rate increases remain possible if inflation becomes more widespread.


What This Means for Mortgage Rates

Variable-Rate Mortgages

Variable mortgage rates are directly influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.

Since the policy rate remains unchanged:

  • Existing variable-rate borrowers will likely see no immediate change.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgage payments should remain stable.
  • New variable-rate mortgage pricing will likely remain similar in the short term.

Fixed Mortgage Rates

Fixed mortgage rates are influenced more by bond yields than the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.

Because financial markets were already expecting the rate hold, fixed mortgage rates may not move significantly based on this announcement alone.

However, inflation data and global economic developments could still affect bond markets and future fixed-rate pricing.


What Homebuyers Should Know

For prospective buyers, today’s announcement provides some short-term stability.

The Bank’s decision suggests policymakers are not rushing into either cuts or hikes.

That means:

  • Mortgage qualification costs remain relatively predictable.
  • Buyers can focus on affordability and budgeting rather than trying to time the market.
  • Future rate movements remain uncertain.

Instead of waiting for the “perfect” rate environment, buyers should focus on:

  • Their long-term housing goals
  • Monthly payment affordability
  • Emergency savings
  • Mortgage flexibility options

What Current Homeowners Should Consider

Homeowners approaching renewal should pay close attention to economic developments over the coming months.

The Bank of Canada’s message was clear: future decisions depend heavily on incoming data.

Consider:

If Inflation Stays Elevated

Rates could remain higher for longer, and further increases cannot be ruled out.

If Economic Growth Weakens Further

Rate cuts may return to support the economy.

If Global Risks Escalate

Market volatility could increase, affecting both fixed and variable mortgage pricing.

For many borrowers, reviewing renewal options several months before maturity may provide more flexibility and negotiating power.


Looking Ahead: What Could Trigger the Next Rate Move?

Several indicators will likely influence future Bank of Canada decisions:

  • Inflation trends
  • Core inflation measures
  • Employment data
  • GDP growth
  • Oil prices
  • U.S.-Canada trade developments
  • Consumer spending activity

The central bank appears willing to remain patient while monitoring these factors.

For now, the most likely outcome is a period of stability, but Canadians should not assume rate cuts are guaranteed.


Conclusion

The Bank of Canada’s latest decision highlights the uncertainty facing Canada’s economy.

While growth has slowed, inflation risks have not disappeared. This leaves policymakers balancing two competing priorities: supporting economic activity while preventing inflation from becoming entrenched.

For homebuyers, homeowners, and mortgage borrowers, the key takeaway is simple: build flexibility into your financial plans. The next move from the Bank of Canada could depend on events both at home and abroad.

Rather than trying to predict every rate announcement, focus on affordability, cash flow, and long-term financial stability.


5. FAQ Section

Why did the Bank of Canada keep rates at 2.25%?

The Bank believes holding rates currently balances the risks of weak economic growth and elevated inflation.

Will mortgage rates go down soon?

There is no guarantee. Future rate cuts depend on inflation, economic growth, and global developments.

Could the Bank of Canada raise rates again?

Yes. The Bank indicated that consecutive rate increases could be necessary if higher energy prices create broader inflation pressures.

How does the Bank of Canada rate affect mortgages?

The overnight rate directly influences variable-rate mortgages and indirectly affects fixed mortgage rates through market expectations and bond yields.

Is now a good time to buy a home in Canada?

The answer depends on your finances, affordability, and long-term plans. Stable rates provide some certainty, but buyers should focus on personal readiness rather than attempting to time the market.


Cedric Pelletier – Mortgage Associate
Maximal Mortgages – Dominion Lending Centre

29 May

Canada’s Weak Job Market May Not Lead to Rate Cuts

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier

Canada’s economy lost 17,700 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate climbed to 6.9%, its highest level in six months. Normally, weaker employment data would strengthen the case for interest rate cuts.

However, rising oil prices are complicating the outlook.

Key Takeaways

  • Canada lost jobs and unemployment increased.
  • Economic weakness typically supports lower interest rates.
  • Rising oil prices are creating inflation concerns.
  • The Bank of Canada is still expected to hold rates steady in the near term.
  • Mortgage rates may stay higher for longer.

Why It Matters

A softer labour market suggests inflation pressures could ease as hiring slows and consumer spending weakens. But higher energy costs can push inflation higher, making it harder for the Bank of Canada to justify cutting rates.

This puts policymakers in a difficult position: support a slowing economy or continue fighting inflation.

Impact on Mortgage Borrowers

Variable-Rate Mortgages

Variable rates depend on Bank of Canada decisions. For now, markets expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged.

Fixed Mortgage Rates

Fixed rates are influenced by bond yields and inflation expectations. Rising oil prices could keep upward pressure on yields, limiting rate declines.

The Bottom Line

Canada’s latest jobs report points to a slowing economy, but inflation remains the key concern. As long as oil prices stay elevated, the Bank of Canada may be reluctant to lower rates quickly.

For homeowners, buyers, and borrowers, that means planning for a higher-rate environment may still be the safest approach.

FAQ

Will Canada cut rates soon?

Not necessarily. Weak employment supports cuts, but inflation risks from higher oil prices could delay them.

How do oil prices affect interest rates?

Higher oil prices can increase inflation, making central banks more cautious about lowering rates.

What does this mean for mortgages?

Mortgage rates may remain relatively stable or higher than expected until inflation pressures ease.


Cedric Pelletier – Mortgage Associate – 05.2026

20 May

Canada’s Core Inflation Nears 2%: What It Means for Mortgage Rates

General

Posted by: Cedric Pelletier


Canada’s latest inflation report delivered encouraging news for mortgage borrowers.

Headline inflation rose 2.8% in April, but the more important number was core inflation, which fell to:

2.05%2.05\%

That’s very close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target and the lowest level since 2021.

Key Takeaways

  • Core inflation cooled significantly in April
  • Gas prices were the main reason headline inflation stayed elevated
  • Mortgage interest costs fell for the first time since 2022
  • Rent growth continues slowing
  • Markets still expect possible rate hikes later this year
  • Variable-rate borrowers may get some relief

What’s Driving Inflation Right Now?

Most of April’s inflation increase came from gasoline prices, which jumped sharply year-over-year.

But outside of energy, inflation was much softer:

  • CPI excluding food, energy, and indirect taxes was 1.5%
  • Rent inflation slowed to its weakest pace in four years
  • Mortgage interest costs declined year-over-year

These are signs that higher interest rates are continuing to cool the economy.


Why Markets Still Expect Rate Hikes

Even with softer inflation data, markets are still pricing in possible Bank of Canada hikes later this year.

One reason is inflation breadth — the share of prices still rising above 3%. That figure increased to:

40.4%40.4\%

This suggests inflation pressures haven’t fully disappeared across the economy.

Still, many economists believe the Bank of Canada will likely hold rates steady unless inflation starts rising again.


What This Means for Mortgage Borrowers

Variable-Rate Mortgages

This report is positive for variable-rate borrowers.

If core inflation stays near 2%, pressure for additional rate hikes may ease, giving homeowners more stability.

Fixed Mortgage Rates

Fixed rates remain tied to bond yields, especially in the U.S.

That means fixed mortgage pricing could still fluctuate even as Canadian inflation improves.


The Bottom Line

Canada’s inflation picture is improving beneath the surface.

Core inflation is close to target, rent growth is slowing, and mortgage interest costs are finally easing.

While markets still see some risk of future hikes, this report gives borrowers cautious optimism that rate pressures may be starting to stabilize.

FAQ Section

What is core inflation?

Core inflation removes volatile items like food and energy to show underlying inflation trends more clearly.

Will the Bank of Canada raise rates again?

Markets still expect possible hikes, but many economists believe rates could remain unchanged if inflation continues cooling.

Is this good news for mortgage borrowers?

Yes. Softer inflation reduces pressure for future rate hikes and may help stabilize borrowing costs.


Cedric Pelletier – Written by the Marketing team at MLN